If they'd traveled to Atlantis without Sheppard, one of two things would have been the inevitable outcome:
a) Due to the lack of genuine ATA gene carriers, Atlantis wouldn't have turned on so many systems when the expedition first set foot on her decks. They would have used up less power from the already almost depleted ZPM and would have had sufficient time to evacuate all personnel to another planet (perhaps Athos). They would have left the city to sink under the ocean, would have been cut off from Earth until/unless the Daedalus came looking for them in several months' time, and would perhaps have perished with insufficient supplies/been culled by the Wraith on Athos.
b) Despite the lack of genuine ATA gene carriers and the subsequent lower initial power consumption upon the expedition's arrival, Atlantis' ZPM's power wouldn't have been sufficient to allow for a (complete) evacuation via the city's Stargate. Dr. Weir would have most likely felt the need to stay behind until all other personnel had left. Either the whole expedition or those of its members not among the first to leave would have perished in the ocean water flooding in. McKay would have drowned, and Dr. Weir and the rest of her staff wouldn't have been able to escape via puddlejumper because they wouldn't have had a pilot with the ATA gene with them. The original timeline wouldn't have been altered to allow for the failsafe to be installed as shown in "Before I Sleep", and history would have repeated itself.
Which, in short, means the expedition would have been screwed without Major Sheppard. Although it seems very likely that the Wraith wouldn't have been woken prematurely, and so the Pegasus galaxy would have enjoyed a few more decades/centuries of (relative) safety from culling.
So that day in McMurdo - would have head or tails triggered a better outcome? A worse one? Hard to decide.
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Comments
So far? Sheppard has been a *disaster*.
Which was certainly a disaster for the Athosians, right? And that's what got Sumner killed & revealed the existence of Earth, and Sheppard's killing of the gatekeeper-queen seems to have finished the awakening job.
So how many of those things would have happened if Sheppard hadn't been along?
Absolutely.
And that's what got Sumner killed & revealed the existence of Earth, and Sheppard's killing of the gatekeeper-queen seems to have finished the awakening job.
While the activation of the necklace started the series of events that lead to the others waking up, it's not *the* reason why the Wraith woke up is what I am trying to say, lol.
And even with the activation of the necklace, let's just say everyone--including Sumner, Teyla, etc--made it out alive and back to Atlantis in one piece. They'd still be in the same situation they are now, but not on the same scale. There still were Wraith running around the Pegasus Galaxy and I'm sure they would have met them eventually. Team Atlantis just made their already existing problem go from a category 1 to a category 5.
So how many of those things would have happened if Sheppard hadn't been along?
It depends on if you believe the myth on if going into the ruins really do bring the Wraith to Athos, I guess.
But yes, I also see a direct chain of events between the expedition (incl. Sheppard) going to Athos and the awakening of the sleeping Wraith.
Without Sheppard, the offworld team wouldn't have been as friendly or as eager to explore the ruins. The necklace wouldn't have been found and activated, and Athos wouldn't have been culled.
Sumner, Bates and the others wouldn't have been caught by the Wraith, there would have been no rescue team, the Wraith wouldn't have heard about the new "feeding grounds", and Sumner et al wouldn't have died.
On the other hand, I cannot rule out the idea that they all might have evacuated to Athos and one of the other gene carriers would have touched the necklace later on. So, yeah, it all might have happened still in another context, just without the possibility of rescue of the culled people since they would have evacuated Atlantis without the puddlejumpers.
Hmmmm.
... provided that they'd all survived the depletion of the ZPM powering Atlantis without the later failsafe in place. And while I have a lot of trust in McKay's abilities, I firmly believe that, if the failsafe hadn't been there, they'd have had to evacuate the city - lacking a better idea.
But yes, I wouldn't be at all averse to a story being written based on your idea. *g*
But as I said further up, the chain of events leading to the premature awakening of the Wraith wouldn't have come to pass without Sheppard, because they would have evacuated the city without taking the jumpers with them. And the facility the Wraith took their prisoners to was only reachable via an in-orbit stargate.